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全球市场每周回顾

发布时间:2017-08-28 12:18  来源:汇视网   编辑:山歌

Contents | 目录

Global Econ Indicators | 全球宏观经济数据

  • U.S. | 美国

    • Existing amp; New Home Sales | 成屋amp;新屋销售

    • Durable Goods | 耐用品订单

  • Euro | 欧洲

    • Germany PMI | 德国采购经理指数

    • Eurozone PMI | 欧元区采购经理指数

  • Asia and Pacific | 亚太

    • Japanese CPI | 日本消费者购物指数

  • Jackson Hole Summit | 杰克逊霍尔央行年会

  • Growth in Sync | 全球经济共同增长

    Financial Market | 金融市场

    • Equity | 股票

      • Samp;P 500 Rises to Break Two-Week Skid | 标普指数本周上涨结束两周持续走低行情

      • Rush for Mideast IPOs | 中东的IPO热潮

      • Rate | 利率

        • Markets Eye Debt Ceiling With Unease | 聚焦债务上限与利率异动

      • Credit | 信用

        • Banks Lend Like Rates Won’t Rise | 银行贷款业务暗含利率风险

        • Hurricane Harvey Down On Texas Oil Industry | 哈维飓风冲击德州油业

        • Rally in Metals Signals Optimism | 全球经济乐观情绪推动金属价格上涨

      • Currency | 货币

        • Yellen’s speech weighs on dollar | 耶伦回避评论货币政策美元下挫

        Topic of the Week | 周话题

        • Cash Exits Emerging Markets | 发展中国家资金外流

        • Smaller punching harder | 欧洲四大经济体经济增长表现逊于其他欧洲国家

        Market Data Recap | 市场数据纵览

        • Global Equity | 全球股市

        • Global Interest Rate | 全球债市

        • Commodity | 大宗

        • FX | 汇率

        The Week Ahead | 核心经济数据日期

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        • 讨论全球金融热点, 每日分享优质文章 ??

        · AlphaNYC Admin | 管理员 ·

        Global Econ Indicator

        全球宏观经济数据

        U.S. | 美国

        Existing amp; New Home Sales | 成屋 amp; 新屋销售

        Sales were down for both new and existing homes, as activity was constrained by the shortage of homes on the market and under construction. New home sales posted a 9.4% monthly drop in July to a 571,000-unit pace. Persistently lean inventories continued to restrain resales in July, with existing home sales registering a slight decline of 1.3% to a 5.44 million-unit pace from 5.51 million units in June.

        Developers are optimistic about demand for new stock, but available building lots are lacking amid increasingly prohibitive construction costs, which are exacerbated by a shortage of labor. These pressures not only inhibit new home sales, but existing homeowners are reluctant to put their home on the market and risk not finding a trade-up home in their price range. The average price of existing homes rose to another record. The typical home was on the market for 30 days in July, marked the fourth month in a row that homes were on the market for less than a month. The solid job market and low mortgage rates support demand, but the dearth of inventory is pushing prices up faster than incomes are rising.

        7月成屋销售与新屋销售均有下降,主要原因为新房与二手房房源稀缺。 新屋销售环比下降9.4%,为57.1万销售单位。成屋销售环比下降1.3%,为544万销售单位。

        开放商对房源需求量持乐观态度;然而住房用地的稀缺、建筑成本的上涨、劳动力的短缺削弱了开放商对新房房源开发的热情。由于待售库存有限,二手房成交价格均价持续走高,平均交易周期为30天,为连续第4个月交易周期短于1个月。在企业招聘稳健且借款成本低企的情况下,美国住房市场仍会保持逐步复苏。然而待售库存的稀缺导致了房价的增长速度超过了工资增速,会在一定程度上抑制房市的增速。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source: National Association of Home Builders

        【图】成屋amp;新屋销售(百万销售单位)

        Durable Goods | 耐用品订单

        Headline durable goods declined 6.8% in July, which we expected as Boeing orders came down to 22 in July, down from 184 in June. The underlying details were more positive and showed the manufacturing sector had solid momentum going into the second half of the year. Orders for capital goods, excluding aircraft and defense, were up a solid 0.4% in July after June's flat reading. Shipments in the same category, which is a useful gauge for the business investment category in the GDP calculations, rose 1% in July. The three-month annualized pace accelerated for orders and shipments of core capital goods, a welcome shift in momentum which bodes well for GDP growth in the second half of the year.

        7月耐用品订单环比下降6.8%,受飞机订单下滑的影响。 波音公司7月订单22笔,较6月的184笔大幅下滑。核心订单 —— 扣除飞机非国防资本耐用品订单环比上涨0.4%,与预期持平。7月同类产品运输环比增长1%,表明三季度初商业投资正在加速,预示了下半年经济增长强劲。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

        【图】核心耐用品订单(除飞机)

        Euro | 欧洲

        Germany PMI | 德国采购经理指数

        Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI improved to 59.4 in August versus a 58.1 reading in July, perhaps dispelling some of the market's concern over whether the slight decline in July was an indication of a slowdown in economic activity. Perhaps the most important information we got from this index in August is that economic growth in Germany has steadied since the beginning of this year. The same can be said for the PMI services index, which increased marginally from 53.1 in July to 53.4 in August.

        市场研究机构马基特集团(Markit)公布德国8月份综合采购经理人指数(PMI)从上月的终值54.7升至55.7,结束连续两个月的跌势。其中,德国8月份制造业采购经理人指数从上月的58.1升至59.4,服务业采购经理人指数从上月的53.1升至53.4;均超过50荣枯线。8月份PMI上涨表明德国经济增长经历了上月小幅回调后依然强劲,制造业和服务业产出均出现上涨。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source: IHS Global Insight

        【图】德国8月制造业采购经理人指数

        Eurozone PMI | 欧元区采购经理指数

        Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI also moved higher, from 56.6 in July to 57.4 on August, probably reflecting the increase we saw in Germany but also supported by a higher manufacturing PMI in France. Germany and France are the two largest economies of the common market. These results may end the discussion of an approaching slowdown in economic activity in the region. Furthermore, even though the services PMI fell slightly in August, from 55.4 to 54.9, the service sector in the Eurozone is still expanding at a healthy clip. The services PMI hit a series' high of 56.4 in April of this year.

        8月欧元区制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从7月份的56.6小幅升至57.4;其中德法制造业的稳健增势给予了欧元区制造业有力的支撑。德国与法国为欧元区最大的两个经济体。尽管服务业采购经理人指数有轻微的下滑,从55.4到54.9,但仍保持在扩张趋势上。欧元区经济数据总体保持良好,增势稳健。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source: IHS Global Insight

        【图】欧元区8月制造业采购经理人指数

        Asia and Pacific | 亚太

        Japanese CPI | 日本消费者购物指数

        In Japan, the Y-o-Y CPI increased as expected, up 0.4%, the fourth consecutive year-over-year increase. So, even as Japanese economic growth surged in the second quarter of the year, price pressures remain contained, which in normal circumstances would be a good thing, but with the recent history of the Japanese economy, it does not help much. This will keep the Japanese central bank from joining the rest of the central banks in the developed world that have started to tighten monetary policy.

        日本7月消费者物价指数同比上涨0.4%,连续4个月实现环比上涨。尽管日本经济增势强劲,但通胀压力仍然较低。面对低通胀,日本央行将继续保持宽松的货币政策,与全球主要经济体将要实施的紧缩货币政策出现差异。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source: IHS Global Insight

        【图】日本消费者物价指数

        Jackson Hole Summit | 杰克逊霍尔央行年会

        Janet Yellen (Federal Reserve chair), Mario Draghi (European Central Bank president) and Haruhiko Kuroda (Bank of Japan governor) are among the monetary policy superstars donning western wear and puzzling over the global economy this week at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Kicking off the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole Friday morning, Janet Yellen spoke about the financial system and gave little hints on monetary policy this year。

        杰克逊霍尔(JacksonHole)全球央行年会于本周五举行,市场最为关注的是在本次的央行年会上各位央行行长——Janet Yellen (美联储主席), Mario Draghi (欧洲央行主席) and 黒田 東彦 (日本银行行长)——将如何对货币政策进行表态。Janet Yellen于周五上午发表讲话,然而讲话中并没有提及投资者所关心的货币政策。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Growth in Sync Around The World | 全球经济共同增长

        For the first time in a decade, the world’s major economies are growing in sync, a result of lingering low-interest rate stimulus from central banks and the gradual fading of crises that over years ricocheted from the U.S. to Greece, Brazil and beyond. All 45 countries tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OEDC) are on track to grow this year, and 33 of them are poised to accelerate from a year ago. It is the first time since 2007 that all are growing and the most countries in acceleration since 2010, when many nations enjoyed a fleeting snapback from the global financial crisis.

        自2007年以来,全球主要经济体首次出现共同增长;主要受益于全球央行的低利率的刺激以及金融危机的影响在逐渐褪去。经济合作与发展组织(OEDC)的统计数据表明,45个主要经济体中有33个为加速增长,12个为稳健增长。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source: OECD. WSJ

        【图】45个主要经济体经济发展状况

        Financial Market

        金融市场

        Equity | 股票

        Samp;P 500 Rises to Break Two-Week Skid | 标普指数本周上涨结束两周持续走低行情

        The Samp; P 500 rose to its first weekly gain in three weeks, despite a pullback in consumer-staples stocks. Major indexes’ moves were muted most of the week— something investors and analysts attributed to the dearth of major economic reports on the calendar and a typical lull in trading toward the end of August.

        The number of shares changing hands over a full session of trading on exchanges owned by the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq fell to their lowest level of 2017 on Friday, and hovered below average levels for the year the rest of the week. A measure of expected swings in the Samp;P 500, the VIX retreated in quiet trading.

        标普500指数近三周内首次上涨,尽管受到必需消费品行业的拖累。本周主要指数波动不大,较少的核心经济数据与月底低迷的交易情绪或为主要原因。

        纽交所与纳斯达克的日股票交易量于本周五达到年度新低;与此同时,风险指标VIX也于本周出现回撤。

        全球市场每周回顾

        【上图】道琼、标普、纳斯达克指数

        【下左图】纽交所与纳斯达克日交易量【下右图】风险指标VIX

        Grocers and investors say they are concerned that Amazon could start a price war as it works to broaden the reach of a chain that has long focused mainly on higher-income shoppers. Amazon has often sold items at break-even or a loss to gain market share in sectors it sees as a priority, a strategy that former Amazon executives said it is likely to replicate in groceries.

        本周食品板块股票出现下跌,主要由于季报表现不佳以及亚马孙周四的公告。亚马逊于周四表示,在137亿美元的全食超市(Whole Food)收购完成后,将大幅削减全食超市食品的零售价格。食品零售商的股价大幅下跌。

        零售商担心亚马逊或引发新一轮的价格战,以吸引低收入消费者,扩展客户群体。亚马逊常实行战略性低价以扩张市场份额。亚马逊执行官表示,很有可能在食品零售行业采用此策略。

        【图】亚马逊通告后食品零售行业股价下跌

        Rush for Mideast IPOs | 中东的IPO热潮

        Three years of lower energy prices have pushed regional governments dependent on oil revenue to tap public markets as a way of plugging holes in their budgets. Gulf nations are also looking to this tactic to diversify their economies.

        Many governments already issued bonds. Now they are turning to equity markets, a move hastened by the initial public offering of 5% of the company called Saudi Aramco. Once listed, it is expected to be the world’s largest company by market capitalization. This year, there have been 32 IPOs in the Middle East, raising $1.5 billion, according to data provider Dealogic. That is more deals than in the two previous years combined.

        持续3年走低的原油价格使得过去依赖石油收入的中东政府不得不转向公开市场筹资以弥补财政赤字。与此同时,海湾国家也在积极寻找多样的经济收入来源。

        许多中东政府已经通过债券市场发行国债来集资。如今他们又转向股票市场集资,其中包括 Saudi Aramco 5% 股权的IPO、今年中东地区已有32个IPO,集资15亿美元,超过前两年IPO数量的总和

        Source: Dealogic, WSJ

        【左图】中东政府债券发售 【右图】中东IPO公司数量

        Rate | 利率

        Markets Eye Debt Ceiling With Unease | 聚焦债务上限与利率异动

        Early signs of concern about the federal debt ceiling are creeping into the financial markets. While stocks remain sturdy, the yields on Treasury bills that mature shortly after the debt limit deadline have been on the rise. A Treasury bill due Oct. 12 has a higher yield than one that matures Nov. 24, according to Tradeweb. That is unusual for fixed-income securities, which typically yield more for longer maturities.

        That kink suggests investors are worried Washington may fail, and yields are rising to compensate for the risk investors due their money in October won’t be paid on time. The yields have been on the rise this summer, but the differential has picked up in recent days, and sooner than during debt-ceiling standoffs in 2011, 2013 and 2015.

        随着债务上限日(9月29日)的临近,利率市场释放出异常信号。尽管股市表现稳健,到期日略晚于债务上限日的美国国库券利率陡增,目前10月12日到期的国库券利率已经超过11月24日到期的国库券。异常的利率曲线表现出投资者对于政府上调债务上限的怀疑态度,债务上限上调或失败,并导致即将到期的国债无法按期偿付,政府部门关门。相较于2011,2013,2015债务上限日前后的利差变化,今年利差增长早于其他年份。今年,债务上限日前50天时,债务上限日当月国库券利率已超过临近月份国库券利率。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source: Nomura, WSJ

        【图】债务上限日当月国库券与附近月份国库券利率差

        Credit | 信用

        Banks Lend Like Rates Won’t Rise | 银行贷款业务暗含利率风险

        After years of waiting for interest rates to rise, some banks are lending as if that day will never come.The percentage of bank assets that won’t mature or change rates for more than five years reached a new high in the second quarter, according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp data released Tuesday. That means banks are allowing more borrowers to lock in low rates for long periods, a potential risk should rates move sharply higher.

        Banks largely make money in two ways: from lending and fees. Midsize and smaller lenders tend to rely more on lending profits than bigger banks that have fee businesses like wealth management. Lending profits typically come from the difference between what banks pay out on deposits and what they earn on loans and securities.But rock-bottom interest rates following the financial crisis eroded those margins across the industry, leading some banks to lend for longer so they can capture more yield. Growing their volume of loans also helped them compensate. Commercial real-estate loans now account for 12.9% of total bank assets, the most since 2010.

        面对长年低利率的市场环境,银行贷款业务并未充分考虑利率风险。银行贷款中,固定低利率的长期贷款数额逐年累加。目前银行资产中5年后到期或5年以内为固定利率的贷款占比已超过25%。若利率上调,银行将面临一定的利率风险。

        银行收入主要源于借贷利差与手续费。相较于大型银行有丰厚的手续费收入,中小型银行更依赖于借贷间利差的收入。长年的低利率环境,不断挤压利差空间,侵蚀中小银行的收入。因此今年来中小银行倾向于扩张长期贷款业务,以收取稍高的利息。其中,商业住房贷款占银行总资产的12.5%,为金融危机后的高位。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., WSJ

        【上图】5年以上固定利率贷款占比银行资产

        【下左图】银行净利息收益率【下右图】商业住房贷款占比银行资产

        Hurricane Harvey Down On Texas Oil Industry | 哈维飓风冲击德州油业

        Hurricane Harvey slammed into Texas Friday night. Energy markets sprang to life Thursday as refiners scrambled to shut down production and the Texas energy industry braced for the first major hurricane in nearly a decade.

        Gasoline prices surged the most in more than three months and U.S. crude-price losses steepened throughout Thursday, as Hurricane Harvey intensified on its way to the Texas coast. The hurricane’s path could put it in direct contact with a major hub for oil operations. Rain and flooding may disrupt refinery operations in the Corpus Christi area, halting the consumption of crude and driving down oil prices. Meanwhile, gasoline prices climbed in anticipation of potential shortages.

        哈维飓风于周五晚上席卷德州。能源市场于周四有较大的震荡,由于此次飓风将给德州的经济与油业带来严重的影响。周四,天然气的价格上升至3月新高;然而美国原油价格大幅下挫。大雨与洪水将使得Corpus Christi 地区的多家精炼厂关闭,将导致原油需求量的骤减与天然气产出的短缺,此为原油价格下挫天然气价格上升的主要原因,

        全球市场每周回顾

        【左图】天然气期货价格【右图】美国原油期货价格

        Rally in Metals Signals Optimism | 全球经济乐观情绪推动金属价格上涨

        Prices for copper hit their highest level in nearly three years Monday, and zinc sits at its highest price in a decade. Aluminum climbed to threeyear peaks last week, and iron ore has rallied 35% since the end of May. Shares of miners also have soared, with the MSCI World Metals amp; Mining Index up 13% during that span.

        Driving the gains are expectations that this year’s nascent rebound in global growth will continue, with major economies around the world shifting into higher gear after a long period of lackluster performance. Many investors are also betting that reduced supplies and a selloff in the dollar will continue boosting prices, which had fallen in recent years alongside other commodities as new producers saturated markets. Commodities denominated in dollars become more affordable to foreign buyers when the U.S. currency falls.

        Global investors view demand for base metals as an important gauge of economic health, as they are the building blocks of construction and used to make everything from airplanes to smartphones. A continued rise in metals prices could help push up inflation in the U.S. and abroad, giving central banks a freer hand to raise interest rates or taper the monetary policy programs they have used to kick-start growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

        铜、锌、铝均达到3年来价格新高;同时铁矿石自五月上涨35%。采矿行业的股价也一路上涨。对全球经济持续复苏增长的预期,为此次金属上涨行情的主要支撑。与其同时,供给的减少与美元的走弱也将进一步推动金属价格的上涨。

        金属需求量为经济发展的重要衡量指标,工业金属可用于建筑行业、航天制造、与智能手机的生产。持续上涨的金属价格将会拉高美国以及其他国家的通胀率,使得央行有更多的空间上调利率并缩减宽松货币政策。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Sources: London Metals Exchange (Al, Zinc); FactSet (Iron Ore); Six Financial (copper); WSJ

        【图】锌、铁矿石、铜、铝 金属价格

        Currency | 货币

        Yellen’s speech weighs on dollar | 耶伦回避评论货币政策美元下挫

        Dollar is near 3-week lows after Yellen avoids monetary policy in speech, while the euro rallied to its highest level since 2015. Investors had been anxiously awaiting the speeches from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi —delivered at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo.—as they seek clues on the outlook for monetary-policy changes. While Ms. Yellen's speech didn’t address the outlook for U.S. interest-rate increases, disappointing some investors who had hoped the central bank chief would sound a hawkish tone. Investors see only a 42% chance that the Fed sticks to its projection for another rate-increase this year, CME Group data shows. Expectations that U.S. rates will remain lower have weighed on the dollar this year by making U.S. assets less attractive to yield-seeking investors.

        The dollar’s losses deepened Friday after Mr. Draghi speech later in the day. Mr. Draghi avoided giving new clues as to when the ECB might wind down its stimulus programs but acknowledged that the eurozone’s economic recovery is gaining ground.

        周五杰克逊霍尔(JacksonHole)全球央行年会上美联储主席 Yellen 回避讨论美国货币政策,导致美元下挫接近3周低位, 相对应欧元达到2015年以来的历史高位。Yellen 周五上午10:00的讲话中并未提起未来利率是否会上升,部分投资者表示失望。根据CME统计数据,目前只有42%的可能美联储会于今年上调利率。美国低利率的预期使得美国资产相较于其他高利率国家的资产吸引力减弱,因而美元下挫

        在欧洲央行行长 Draghi 下午3:00讲话之后,美元进一步下挫。尽管 Draghi 没有直接指出欧洲央行是否会结束货币刺激政策,但充分表示了对欧元区经济的信心。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source: bloomberg

        【图】美元指数 (8月25日)

        Topic of the Week

        周话题

        Cash Exits Emerging Markets | 发展中国家资金外流

        Investors yanked money out of emerging-market funds for the first time in months, a sign of trouble in what has been a sturdy corner of the market for much of the year. Emerging-market debt funds and stock funds both had outflows for the week ended Aug. 16, according to fund-data tracker EPFR Global, as many global investors turned more cautious on risk. Before that, money had poured into emerging-market stocks for 21 straight weeks and into emerging-market debt funds for 28 consecutive weeks.

        While investors acknowledge the recent bumps, many say it isn’t time to call an end to the rally in emerging-market stocks and bonds. Instead, they say, the outflows are indicative of the typical volatility in emerging markets. Rising global tensions and political turmoil in the U.S. also had sparked a pullback in U.S. markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday notching its biggest decline in three months.

        近几个月以来,投资者首次从发展中国家的资本市场撤资。发展中国家的债市、股市均出现资金外流。在此之前,发展中国家股市连续21周、债市连续28周资金净流入。

        尽管如此,大部分投资者仍对发展中金融市场持乐观态度,认为此次资金回撤为正常的波动。近期,投资者面对紧张的全球政治局势与美国不稳定的政治因素表现出谨慎的态度,美国股市同样面临资金的回撤与下调。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source : BoA Merrill Lynch, WSJ

        【上图】发展中国家股市资金流量

        【下图】发展中国家债市资金流量

        Smaller punching harder | 欧洲四大经济体经济增长表现逊于其他欧洲国家

        Smaller European countries have been delivering better-than-expect GDP growth. As the Chart of the Week shows, isolating the growth of the Euro area’s four largest economies – Germany, France, Italy and Spain – shows that the other 15 Euro area countries have enjoyed 40bps stronger growth than these European titans.

        欧洲4大经济体 —— 德国、法国、意大利于西班牙 ——GDP平均增速为1.7%。相对应,欧洲其他15个国家的经济增速超过预期为2.1%,高于4大经济体0.4%。

        全球市场每周回顾

        Source: Bloomberg, GSAM. As of Aug, 2017

        【图】欧洲国家经济增速

        Market Data Recap

        市场数据纵览

        Global Equity | 全球股市

        全球市场每周回顾

        Global Interest Rate | 全球债市

        U. S. Interest Rate | 美国利率

        全球市场每周回顾

        Foreign Interest Rate | 美国利率

        全球市场每周回顾
        全球市场每周回顾

        FX | 汇率

        全球市场每周回顾

        The Week Ahead

        核心经济数据日期

        全球市场每周回顾

        ·END·

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